Figure 2

Outliers returned by the non-homogeneous Poisson model. The blue line shows the estimated Poisson intensity function. The green dashed line shows the point-wise 99.99th percentile of the Poisson distribution. The estimated outliers are in red crosses and the outliers identified by the domain expert are in blue circles. In total 59 outliers are identified, resulting in 8 false positives and 7 false negatives.